Commodities Technical Analysis | NMCE Rubber Intraday Outlook | 18 November 2009 | www.commodityonline.com
Rubber futures in NMCE continued down trend on Tuesday, a spill over weakness from crude oil prices also weighed on prices. At the same time most Asian markets settled higher yesterday. Benchmark TOCOM April settled 1.6 yen higher at 238.3yen per kg.
According to the Thai Rubber Association, rubber output from Thailand, the world’s largest producer, may decline about 10 percent this year as heavy rainfall disrupts production. Output will be 2.7 million to 2.8 million metric tons in 2010 compared with 3.1 million tons in 2008. Yields also fell as fertilizer costs rose, curbing use.
In the January-October period, China produced 540.65 million tons of tires, up 15%. However rubber imports to China are in a declining trend. China imported 100,000 tons of natural rubber in October, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs. In the year to date, total imports fell 2.8% to 1.41 million tons, the customs department said.
According to the country's Rubber Board, India's natural rubber output this year will likely total 835,000 metric tons, down 5.2% due to adverse weather and an increasing proportion of low-yield, aging plantations. India's rubber replanting program is running way behind schedule and 70,000 hectares need to be replanted immediately to improve yield. Most of the trees of those 70,000 hectares are between 28 and 29 years old. In India only 9,000 Hectares Rubber Area Replanted In 2008
Indonesia's natural rubber output is likely to fall to 2.59 million metric tons this year from 2.75 million tons last year due to dry weather has affected yields.
Reports from Thailand, Thailand expected to expand rubber area by around 870,000 hectares in northern and northeastern regions, where the weather is more conducive for rubber tapping. Natural rubber output in the January-August period in Thailand, the world's largest producer, was 1.9 million tons, 8.3% lower from a year ago.
In the mean time, India's natural rubber import hit a record high of 126,000 tonne during Apr-Oct, according to provisional estimates of the Rubber Board. The increase during Apr-Oct is a good 219% year on year, according to the board. According to projections by the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association, natural rubber import may touch 150,000 tn in 2009-10. According to latest report from International Rubber Study Group, Global rubber supply may jump 30 percent by 2015 and may increase by 50 percent by 2020, due to dramatic increase in total new planting. In 2008 total new planting is estimated to have reached around six times the level of 2000.
NMCE rubber moved in the range of Rs11395-11301 last traded at Rs.11330 (11398) Open interest decreased by 44 to 1757. Rubber stocks at NMCE accredited warehouses increased by 118Mt. to 1559 Mt.
INTRADAY OUTLOOK
NMCE Rubber December futures support lies at 11289 and 11248. Resistance is at 11383 and 11436.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Natural rubber imports dip 50%
Natural rubber (NR) imports declined 50 per cent in October compared with the same month last year. The imports fell to 8,574 tonnes against 16,010 tonnes in October last year.
Till September, imports were on a rise due to a sharp increase in the local prices of the commodity . The international prices of RSS-3 grade were lower than the Indian prices, the difference being around Rs 17-18 a kg. This encouraged importers to utilise the price advantage.
The rubber-based industry, especially tyre makers, also reaped the benefits of the global price advantage, leading to a rise in imports in the first half. This sharp rise in imports led to an increase in the rubber stock in India. By the end of October, the country possessed 219,000 tonnes of rubber as against 150,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
At present, the price situation is in a reverse mode as the international prices are higher by Rs 7-8 a kg compared with the local prices. So, the imports have become unviable.
The cumulative imports during April-October increased to 126,472 tonnes from 54,283 tonnes in the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports from the country have shown signs of improvement in October as 1,239 tonnes were exported. This was 401 tonnes in September this year and nil in July and August.
Till September, imports were on a rise due to a sharp increase in the local prices of the commodity . The international prices of RSS-3 grade were lower than the Indian prices, the difference being around Rs 17-18 a kg. This encouraged importers to utilise the price advantage.
The rubber-based industry, especially tyre makers, also reaped the benefits of the global price advantage, leading to a rise in imports in the first half. This sharp rise in imports led to an increase in the rubber stock in India. By the end of October, the country possessed 219,000 tonnes of rubber as against 150,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
At present, the price situation is in a reverse mode as the international prices are higher by Rs 7-8 a kg compared with the local prices. So, the imports have become unviable.
The cumulative imports during April-October increased to 126,472 tonnes from 54,283 tonnes in the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports from the country have shown signs of improvement in October as 1,239 tonnes were exported. This was 401 tonnes in September this year and nil in July and August.
Friday, November 6, 2009
No tariff cut for rubber, cashew under ASEAN trade pact
Kolkata, Nov 4 (IANS) The government will not reduce tariff on rubber and cashew under the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) Free Trade Agreement that will become effective from January, said Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jyotiraditya M. Scindia here Wednesday.
“There is going to be no tariff relaxation whatsoever as far as rubber and cashew are concerned,” Scindia said on the sidelines of a seminar organised by the Bharat Chamber of Commerce.
However, tariff for tea and coffee would be reduced from 100 percent to 45 percent and that on refined palm oil from 80 percent to 55 percent over 10 years, he said.
“We have a very directed trade pact safeguarding the interest of small farmers,” Scindia said.
“There is going to be no tariff relaxation whatsoever as far as rubber and cashew are concerned,” Scindia said on the sidelines of a seminar organised by the Bharat Chamber of Commerce.
However, tariff for tea and coffee would be reduced from 100 percent to 45 percent and that on refined palm oil from 80 percent to 55 percent over 10 years, he said.
“We have a very directed trade pact safeguarding the interest of small farmers,” Scindia said.
Thailand Wants Rubber Price Above 80 Baht
The government will push for the rubber price to rise beyond 80 baht per kilogramme by February and hopes to stabilise the price, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said in Tuesday.
Mr Suthep said he was not trying to send rubber prices into a spin, only to point out the government's target so that planters and traders would not rush to in advance at a low price and generate a problem of rubber surplus.
At present, the demand and supply of rubber were at about the same level. However, there was a trend for demand to rise along with the price of crude oil.
The government would prepare measures to cope with this trend and believed everything would be in place before the end of February next year, said the deputy prime minister.
Mr Suthep said the government had set aside eight billion baht for rubber planters and so the Office of the Rubber Planting Aid Fund could hold a stockpile of up to 2,000 tonnes to stabilise the price.
The private sector would do likewise, he added.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Supachai Phosu said the Office of the Rubber Planting Aid Fund had been assigned plan the expansion of rubber plantations in the North and Northeast regions by one to two million rai.
He did not believe this would cause the rubber price to drop, because there would be higher demand for rubber in the future.
Today's price of rubber at Hat Yai market ranged from 71.85 baht to 74.05 baht per kilogramme. The price was likely to go up to 80 baht per kilogramme by the end of October, Mr Supachai said.
PM's Office Minister Veerachai Veeramethikul said the government was negotiating with major rubber importers including Japan and China. China, in particular, was likely to import more rubber since it had set a target to become the world's largest automobile maker, he said.
Mr Suthep said he was not trying to send rubber prices into a spin, only to point out the government's target so that planters and traders would not rush to in advance at a low price and generate a problem of rubber surplus.
At present, the demand and supply of rubber were at about the same level. However, there was a trend for demand to rise along with the price of crude oil.
The government would prepare measures to cope with this trend and believed everything would be in place before the end of February next year, said the deputy prime minister.
Mr Suthep said the government had set aside eight billion baht for rubber planters and so the Office of the Rubber Planting Aid Fund could hold a stockpile of up to 2,000 tonnes to stabilise the price.
The private sector would do likewise, he added.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Supachai Phosu said the Office of the Rubber Planting Aid Fund had been assigned plan the expansion of rubber plantations in the North and Northeast regions by one to two million rai.
He did not believe this would cause the rubber price to drop, because there would be higher demand for rubber in the future.
Today's price of rubber at Hat Yai market ranged from 71.85 baht to 74.05 baht per kilogramme. The price was likely to go up to 80 baht per kilogramme by the end of October, Mr Supachai said.
PM's Office Minister Veerachai Veeramethikul said the government was negotiating with major rubber importers including Japan and China. China, in particular, was likely to import more rubber since it had set a target to become the world's largest automobile maker, he said.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Meet on rubber quality Standards begins
KOCHI: The 57th annual meeting of the International Standards Organisation ISO) TC 45 (rubber and rubber products) started here for preparation and developments of quality standards for the rubber industry. Discussions began on issues relating to the creation, revising, updating and deletion of standards pertaining to all sectors of rubber industry and the materials that are used by the industry.
The meeting, hosted by Bureau of Indian Standards, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, was inaugurated by ISO TC 45 chairman Christie Roberts.
Madhulika Prakash, deputy director general, Bureau of Indian Standards, welcomed the delegates.
The delegates are senior techno commercial personnel drawn from all facets of international rubber industry and includes natural and synthetic rubber production sectors, tyre sector and non-tyre (dry and latex) sectors.
Representatives from top eight international tyre companies, including Michelin, Goodyear, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Continental, Sumitomo, Yokohama and Kumho as well as Indian tyre companies are attending the meeting.
Christie Roberts told mediapersons here that the record attendance from international participants reflects the growing interest in the potential of the Indian rubber industry, which is expected to come into the top three within the next decade behind China and the US.
In spite of the global economic recession, the rubber industry recorded a 24 percent export growth in the last financial year. The working progress of various stages of quality standards of rubber will be discussed at the meeting, which will conclude on October 30. Around 150 proposals for quality standards are being discussed and some of them are in the final stages.
The quality standards are revised each time along with the new proposals which will be accepted only after reaching a consensus with the representatives of each country. The meeting is supported by Indian institutions connected with the rubber industry, including The Rubber Board, Rubber Research Institute, The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association, The All India Rubber Industries Association and the Indian Rubber Institute.
The meeting, hosted by Bureau of Indian Standards, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, was inaugurated by ISO TC 45 chairman Christie Roberts.
Madhulika Prakash, deputy director general, Bureau of Indian Standards, welcomed the delegates.
The delegates are senior techno commercial personnel drawn from all facets of international rubber industry and includes natural and synthetic rubber production sectors, tyre sector and non-tyre (dry and latex) sectors.
Representatives from top eight international tyre companies, including Michelin, Goodyear, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Continental, Sumitomo, Yokohama and Kumho as well as Indian tyre companies are attending the meeting.
Christie Roberts told mediapersons here that the record attendance from international participants reflects the growing interest in the potential of the Indian rubber industry, which is expected to come into the top three within the next decade behind China and the US.
In spite of the global economic recession, the rubber industry recorded a 24 percent export growth in the last financial year. The working progress of various stages of quality standards of rubber will be discussed at the meeting, which will conclude on October 30. Around 150 proposals for quality standards are being discussed and some of them are in the final stages.
The quality standards are revised each time along with the new proposals which will be accepted only after reaching a consensus with the representatives of each country. The meeting is supported by Indian institutions connected with the rubber industry, including The Rubber Board, Rubber Research Institute, The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association, The All India Rubber Industries Association and the Indian Rubber Institute.
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